Crying Wolf Over Measles Outbreaks : Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
Claims they are caused by vaccine hesitancy are inconsistent with CDC's own data.
Is Vaccine Hesitancy Causing Measles Outbreaks?
According to the CDC, and as repeated by most media outlets, there is an increased frequency of measles outbreaks this year which is caused by lowered vaccination rates due to "vaccine hesitancy". But contrary to this narrative is the simple fact that uptake of MMR vaccine has remained remarkably consistent over the years, fluctuating between 92% to 95% and this year it is about 93%, so it seems bordering on absurd to claim that a 2% decrease since 2019 is causing measles outbreaks.
Remember the infamous 2014-15 Disneyland measles outbreak, and how it was used to justify SB277 which took away the philosophical exemption from vaccination in California? Were you aware that 38% of the measles cases tested in the US that year were found to be caused by the vaccine itself?
"During the measles outbreak in California in 2015, a large number of suspected cases occurred in recent vaccinees. Of the 194 measles virus sequences obtained in the United States in 2015, 73 (38%) were identified as vaccine sequences."
This graphic from the CDC, which I have seen referenced in numerous articles, sure makes it look like measles is terrible this year:
But just scroll down on the same CDC page and you will see that while the number of projected measles cases in 2024 will be somewhat higher than an average year, it does not even come close to years we consider to be problematic, like 2014 and 2019:
Keep in mind we have just been through the annual “flu season”, so it highly unlikely that we will see similar numbers of measles cases continue through the spring and summer months.
The CDC states that “vaccination coverage among U.S. kindergartners has decreased from 95.2% during the 2019–2020 school year to 93.1% in the 2022–2023 school year, leaving approximately 250,000 kindergartners at risk each year over the last three years.”
Then the media runs with this narrative with headlines like:
US has already had more measles cases in 2024 than all of 2023
U.S. measles cases rise to at least 64 so far in 2024 — more than all of 2023
US sees surge in measles cases as health experts plead for more vaccinations
See how this works?
Now go back and re-read the previous quote from the CDC about “vaccination coverage”…does anything stand out to you? What was the vaccination rate for measles back in 2019? It was 95.2%, and has dropped to 93.1% in 2022-2023 and this decrease is being blamed for the increased outbreaks in 2024.
Look again at the graph of measles cases per year…2019 was the year with the most measles cases since 2000 (and actually since 1992).
Again, what was the vaccination rate for measles in 2019?
Effectiveness of the MMR Vaccine
Were the measles vaccine, introduced in 1963, and then the MMR vaccine, introduced in 1971, responsible for the huge decline in mortality from measles during the 1900’s?
No, no they were not (from Vital Statistics Rates in the United States 1940 - 1960):
The CDC has repeatedly claimed that the measles portion of the MMR (Measles, Mumps and Rubella) vaccine is 97% effective after two doses.
Let’s take a look at real-world population level research which would seem to contradict this claim:
"The occurrence of secondary vaccine failure and vaccine-modified measles does not appear to be a major impediment to measles control in the United States but may lead to underreporting of measles cases and result in overestimation of vaccine efficacy in highly vaccinated populations."Measles Outbreak among Previously Immunized Adult Healthcare Workers, China, 2015.
"Surprisingly, 73.3% of the infected individuals had been previously immunized against measles.""The reported coverage of the measles–rubella (MR) or measles–mumps–rubella (MMR) vaccine is greater than 99.0% in Zhejiang province. However, the incidence of measles, mumps, and rubella remains high.""Thus, measles outbreaks also occur even among highly vaccinated populations because of primary and secondary vaccine failure, which results in gradually larger pools of susceptible persons and outbreaks once measles is introduced. This leads to a paradoxical situation whereby measles in highly immunized societies occurs primarily among those previously immunized."The future of measles in highly immunized populations. A modeling approach.
"...long-range projections demonstrate that the proportion of susceptibles in the year 2050 may be greater than in the prevaccine era.""…vaccine-induced measles antibodies decline with time and may fall under the protective level."An increasing, potentially measles-susceptible population over time after vaccination in Korea.
"Progressive decline in antibody levels and seropositivity were observed over time after vaccination in infants, adolescents, and young adults. The accumulation of potentially susceptible individuals in the population was confirmed by comparing data from 2010 and 2014 seroprevalence surveys."
"Waning levels of measles antibodies with increasing time post-vaccination suggests that measles susceptibility is potentially increasing in Korea. This trend may be related to limitations of vaccine-induced immunity in the absence of natural boosting by the wild virus, compared to naturally acquired immunity triggered by measles infection.""In China, where countrywide vaccination coverage for the last decade has been above 95% (the threshold for measles elimination), measles continues to cause large epidemics."Some “Measles” Cases are Caused by the MMR Vaccine
As stated previously, 38% of the measles cases sampled in the US during the year of the Disneyland measles outbreak were found to be caused by the measles portion of the vaccine. The authors stated “Since approximately 5% of recipients of measles virus-containing vaccine experience rash and fever which may be indistinguishable from measles, it is very important to identify vaccine reactions to avoid unnecessary isolation of the patient.”
In one study of a measles outbreak in Ontario, Canada in 2015, health officials found that only 17 of 36 confirmed measles-positive cases were “wild type”. Gene sequencing revealed that 16 of the rest of the confirmed cases were from vaccine measles strain.
Another study sampled urine specimens from vaccine recipients and found that measles virus RNA was detected in 10 of 12 children during the sampling period.
How Safe is the MMR Vaccine and Has it Been Well Tested?
The graphics used below are from the March 28, 2024 episode of The Highwire, all using primary sourced information. I suggest everyone watch this as it does a great job covering many of these issues.
The following table from the primary clinical trial used to approve the MMR vaccine in the US shows that they only tested 834 subjects, and they followed these subjects for just 42 days. Any epidemiologist will tell you that following 834 subjects for 42 days is not even close to adequate for a clinical safety trial of even a cosmetic, let alone a combination live virus vaccine you will inject into babies.
Of the few epidemiological studies done by the CDC to try to demonstrate that the MMR vaccine does not cause autism, the 2004 DeStefano study is considered the de-facto proof. This study actually doesn’t even address that question, it looks at whether earlier receipt of MMR vaccine increases the risk of autism and concludes that it does not. Then in 2014 it came out that Dr. William Thompson, one of the senior researchers on this paper, was recorded on a phone call saying that this study actually did find that certain subsets of children had higher risk of autism when they received the MMR vaccine earlier. Known as the “CDC Whistleblower”, Dr. Thompson shared that the researchers had even decided to very purposefully throw away all data and all traces of these inconvenient findings (he kept copies and shared them with the person to whom he was divulging this information).
Here is the beginning of Dr. Thompson’s press release, you must use the Internet Archive (Wayback) machine to access it because the law firm representing Dr. Thompson took it down from their website:
August 27, 2014 Press Release, “Statement of William W. Thompson, Ph.D., Regarding the 2004 Article Examining the Possibility of a Relationship Between MMR Vaccine and Autism”
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE-AUGUST 27,2014 STATEMENT OF WILLIAM W. THOMPSON, Ph.D., REGARDING THE 2004 ARTICLE EXAMINING THE POSSIBILITY OF A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MMR VACCINE AND AUTISM
My name is William Thompson. I am a Senior Scientist with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, where I have worked since 1998. I regret that my coauthors and I omitted statistically significant information in our 2004 article published in the journal Pediatrics. The omitted data suggested that African American males who received the MMR vaccine before age 36 months were at increased risk for autism. Decisions were made regarding which findings to report after the data were collected, and I believe that the final study protocol was not followed.
Here is a list of adverse reactions which were understood to plausibly be caused by the MMR vaccine:
Here is the summary of a comprehensive Cochrane Collaboration review of MMR clinical trial studies (Cochrane is considered the Gold Standard in epidemiological rigor):
Here are bullet points for moderate adverse events from MMR vaccine, as listed on the CDC’s own Vaccine Information Statement (VIS) for MMR vaccine:
Here are the severe adverse reactions listed on the VIS statement:
I am sure it must be “hard to tell whether [adverse reactions] are caused by the vaccine” when only 834 subjects are followed for 42 days.
David
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